Kansas City fans are excited to see their hometown heroes, the Chiefs, back in the Super Bowl this year, but some say that a Chiefs win would be bad for the stock market. What?!!?
Does the winner of the big game influence the stock market somehow?
There is an old wives’ tale (or perhaps an “old sportscasters’ tale”) called the “Super Bowl indicator” that predicts if the stock market will be up or down for the year based on which team wins the big game. As a refresh, the Super Bowl brings together the champion teams from the AFC (American Football Conference) and NFC (National Football Conference) brackets to face off at the end of the regular NFL football season. If the team from the AFC division wins, the stock market will supposedly be down for the year. A win for an NFC team would indicate a bull market for that year according to this theory. There is obviously no logical reason for the Super Bowl outcome and the stock market to be related, but the Super Bowl indicator has a surprising rate of accuracy of around 74%.
So, is it true?
The so-called Super Bowl indicator was first introduced in a column by Leonard Koppett in 1978 as a joke. He based the results on the outcomes of the first 12 Super Bowls saying that if an original National Football League (NFC) team won the game, it foreshadowed a good year for the stock market. If an American Football League (AFC) team took the title, then stock prices would go down. Turns out, the joke was on him!
There are a few discrepancies in the theory, due to franchise changes, expansions, and mergers in the league. For example, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens are both considered old NFL teams even though they now play in the AFC. There are also many instances where the indicator was just plain wrong. In 2008, despite the New York Giants (NFC) winning the Super Bowl (indicating a positive market year), the stock market suffered one of the largest downturns since the Great Depression.
If you buy into this Super Bowl theory, a win for the Eagles (NFC) will be good for the markets and a win for the Chiefs (AFC) will result in some market turmoil in 2023. However, the last time the Chiefs won the Super Bowl (2020) – this predictor was WRONG. We had some stock market drama in 2020 (RE: Covid-19), but the S&P 500 ended the year on a positive note (double-digit positive actually).
I’m still rooting for Kansas City – Go Chiefs!
Jamie Bosse, CFP®
Jamie Bosse, CFP®, RFC, CCFC is a lead financial planner with Aspyre Wealth Partners®. You can schedule a free consultation with Jamie by clicking this calendar link: https://go.oncehub.com/JamieBosse
Jamie A. Bosse is a Certified Financial Planner® professional at Aspyre Wealth Partners® and a board member of the Financial Planning Association of Greater Kansas City. For help with your specific situation contact Jamie at firstname.lastname@example.org
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